“Super” El Nino Disastrous For Winter In Western New York?

Most weather officials are calling for a "Super" El Niño to form out over the Pacific Ocean, and that could end up being VERY bad for winter here in Western New York.

Super El Niño's Impact On Winter Weather In WNY

According to a recent article published by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard, this year's Super El Niño could be a record-setting one.

Photo Credit: Rose Porter/2026

So what will the impact be here in Western New York? Twofold. Most predictions for Winter Weather in the 716 are calling for a warmer and weather winter. That means we will see our average temperatures stay above normal for extended periods of time.

READ MORE: HERE IS THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PREDICTION FOR WESTERN NEW YORK 

The one reason that is VERY bad for us here in Western New York is the Great Lakes. When the temperatures of lakes stay above average, there is a greater chance of lake-effect snowstorms that could drop historical levels of snow.

Massive Lake Effect Snowstorms For Western New York

The way lake effect snow is produced is when cold air moves over warm lake water, lake effect snow happens. If the lakes stay warmer later into Winter, there is a greater chance of lake-effect snow, and if those temperatures remain above average, we could see massive lake-effect snowstorms.

I live in Hamburg and have seen plenty of lake-effect snowstorms drop feet of snow on my front lawn in a matter of hours.

The one saving grace with the Super El Niño is that hopefully the air temperature will stay warmer than normal, so there is less risk of lake-effect snow. Only time will tell if we will see historic lake-effect snow this year in Western New York.