The Cost for the Bills to Trade Into the Top 5 of the Draft

We're just over two months away from the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. It feels like it's next week, the way we have been talking about it the past two weeks. However, we still have the combine next week and then the start of free agency to get through. Plus, all the college team pro days between March and April.

The Bills sit with the 28th overall pick in round one. They also are projected anywhere from $45-54 million over the salary cap, which should be known in the coming days (when the league reveals the 2024 cap number).

The Bills biggest needs are wide receiver, defensive line and safety. Many fans want them to take wide receiver in the first round, which likely means some such as Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU, Troy Franklin from Oregon, Keon Coleman from Florida State or Adonai Mitchell from Texas.

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However, perhaps getting all the way up to the top 5 is possible...in order to draft the best receiver in the draft, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison Jr. is the son of Hall of Fame wide receiver, Marvin Harrison, who spent his entire career as Payton Manning's top target with the Indianapolis Colts. His son, Marvin, is viewed as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the last decade and maybe the best overall player in the 2024 draft.

But how much would it cost for the Bills to come up from pick 28?

The Bills would likely have to trade into the 3rd or 4th overall pick. The 3rd pick feels like it will never, ever happen, since that's the New England Patriots pick (division rival). 4th is the Arizona Cardinals, who also have the 27th overall pick.

With the Chicago Bears (first overall) expected to take Caleb Williams (QB) and the Washington Commanders expected to take Drake Maye (QB) or Jayden Daniels (QB).

Believe it or not, the Bills would likely have to give up their entire 2024 draft, PLUS, their first overall pick in 2025 to go from pick 28 to pick 4.

The reason being is the NFL Draft trade value chart. It's a points system implemented by the Dallas Cowboys in the early '90s, which all teams use to a degree now. It gives a value on each pick and allows teams to know how much they need to give up or receiver in a draft day trade.

The 4th pick is worth roughly 1,800 points. The Bills entire draft (including pick 28) is worth 1,200 points. That means they would give the whole draft up, plus a first rounder in 2025 (660 points this year for pick 28).

The chances of Brandon Beane doing that is almost zero. So, any Bills fan hoping they do this, should probably prepare themselves for Beane to either stay at 28 or move up a few spots for his player (not 24 spots).