Here Are the Odds of a White Christmas for Each Part of WNY
Will it be a White Christmas for Western New York?
The short answer is — it depends on where you are in Western New York.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it's more likely than not that the region will see snow on Christmas.
If you've lived in Western New York longer than one calendar year, you know our weather can vary wildly — within days, or even hours — due in large part to factors, like our elevation and proximity to the lake.
According to WIVB, chances for at least an inch of snow on Christmas Day "may be nearly 30 percent different from one area to another."
Essentially, if you're in the northern counties of the region such as Niagara, Erie, or Genesee, odds for snow hover around 50%. Helpful, I know.
Based on data collected between 1981 and 2010 here are the percentages for the likeliness of a white Christmas.
- Buffalo: 55%
- Lockport: 54/55%
- Niagara Falls: 47%
- North Tonawanda: 54%
- Batavia: 50%
As you go into the valleys, the odds of a White Christmas go way up.
As Alanis Morissette would say, isn't it ironic, don't you think?
- Sinclairville, Sherman: 74%
- Westfield: 62%
- Little Valley: 75%
- Colden, Warsaw: 75%
- Franklinville: 70%
Towards the southeast of WNY, you have slightly better than half-and-half odds.
- Rushford: 63%
- Friendship: 64%
- Angelica: 59%
- Wellsville: 57%
- Whitesville: 56%
You can see NOAA's snow prediction map here.