This week was really our first actual threat for snowfall across Western New York. The snow accumulated in thee southern tier Tuesday and Wednesday, with flakes flying in the southtowns and even mixing in the Buffalo metro.

Winter technically doesn't begin until just before Christmas, but now that we're in November, this is usually when Buffalonians are on high alert for potential snowfall.

But what kind of winter will 2021-2022 be? The answer isn't for certain, obviously, but the outlook is looking like it could be a tough one for lake effect.

WIVB 4 Warn Weather send out their annual winter outlook this week, and this winter will be impacted by La Nina.

La Nina's presence will give Western New York higher odds for a warmer and wetter winter, which could have a greater chance for early snow this year (December, January).

The temperature of Lake Erie is higher than normal for this time of year, which means the threat of more lake effect snow is even greater. That could mean we see some heavy lake effect while that lake water is warmer and not frozen.

Above average precipitation and the wild card of lake effect snow will be what we keep our eye on.

If you remember, last year's January-March didn't see a lot of snow, but we did have a snowy December, with a very white Christmas in 2020. Will that happen again? More lake effect snow? The chances of that appear to be higher than usual, but we shall see.

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