It has certainly not felt like a normal August for New York state.

The temperatures have been unseasonably cool the last several days, especially last Thursday and Friday. That will be the case again this upcoming weekend, with high temperatures not getting out of the 60's.

The good news is that we will have plenty of dry time and 70's for the next several weeks, but September means that fall is right around the corner. Colder temps are on the way.

Winter does not start until December 21st (at 10:27 pm), but when we reach fall weather, that is when people starting asking "how cold will it be this winter?" and "how much snow will we get this year?"

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Last fall was brutal for Western and Central New York, with heavy lake effect snow that caused everyone to stay at home in both November and the week of Christmas. Winter Storm Elliott wreaked havoc on the Midwest and northeast and caused a massive blizzard in Western New York. The remainder of winter mostly fine, but many people would prefer never to go through that again.

There are already preliminary winter projections out from Farmer's Almanac, Direct Weather and David Schlotthauer, who all predict a snowy and cold winter for the northeast, but according to the predictions, Western and Central New York will be spared from a blizzard...but downstate will not be so lucky.

Schlotthauer predicts blizzard and Nor'Easters for the northeast: New England, New York City and New Jersey, with blizzards also possible for this region as well.

"There's going to be a huge, elevated concern for possible historic blizzards in the northeast."

Ryan Hall posted a video with 6.2 million views, that agrees with that assessment.

The El Nino effect will impact the weather in the northeast, which includes this winter. However, this El Nino is different because of the expected rise in water temperatures in the Pacific and the warmest the Atlantic Ocean has ever been...that with the cold fronts and jet stream can mean huge snowstorms for the northeast.

Hall depicts that a huge, historic snowstorm has a 15 percent chance of hitting New York City and that region of New York. There's a lesser chance (but still a chance) for the rest of New York state.

These are just predictions, not forecasts, which has to be stressed.

However, the agreement between the predictions and the presence of the El Nino and warm Atlantic Ocean is not something we want. That could mean big snowstorms.

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