How The Bills Win The AFC East; It’s Not as Hard as You May Believe
The Buffalo Bills lost last night to the New England Patriots by a score of 14-10. The game was something NFL fans rarely see, as New England attempted three total passes the entire game.
The reason the Patriots attempted three passes and ran the ball 46 times was due to the harsh winds in Orchard Park. The wind gusts of 40-45 mph made kicking extremely difficult, and passes also were risky.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw for 145 yards, with many of those yards into the wind going toward the scoreboard end zone, which is one of the more impressive feats by Allen in his career, and no, I am not joking -- that wind was absolutely ridiculous.
The Bills lost the game for multiple reasons: bad coaching decisions (timeout management, clock management, play calling), red zone efficiency, and poor tackling, which led to the Patriots over 200 yards running.
The loss puts the Bills at 7-5 and still in a playoff position, while the Patriots head into their late bye week at 9-4 and leading the AFC East.
I know it's not a great day to be looking at things optimistically (really tough, in fact), however, the Bills still have a reasonable shot at not only making the postseason, but winning the AFC East.
The Bills have an 84 percent chance to make the playoffs, which also speaks to how down the AFC is this year. But the Bills also have a 32 percent chance to win the AFC East as it stands today.
The Bills AFC East title odds dramatically increase with a few simple things.
The Bills can win the AFC East if these scenarios take place.
- Beat the Patriots the Sunday after Christmas (in Foxborough).
- Beat the Jets at home to close out the regular season schedule.
- Patriots lose one other game.
Why does it seem, well, easier than you maybe believed?
The reason is because of division tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is overall record (duh). The second is head to head, which in this scenario, is a wash because both teams split. The third, however, is division record, which the Bills will have over the Patriots with a win over New England in Foxborough and a win against the Jets.
Assuming one of those Patriots losses isn't against Miami, the Patriots are 4-2 in the division in this scenario. The Bills would be 5-1 and win the tiebreaker for the AFC East.
This is all predicated on the Bills beating the Patriots in week 16. Without that, this is all meaningless.
The Bills are still very much likely to make the playoffs if they only beat the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets -- all below .500 teams.
Yes, it's a bad day in Buffalo for Bills fans, but the standings outlook does not look lost whatsoever.