Here’s When Buffalo Could Get Its First Snowfall In 2021

I know, it's August and in case you haven't looked at the seven-day forecast, there's expected sunshine and summer warmth for the immediate future.

However, as we all know, August is the first reminder that summer is over the halfway hump and we will be hitting the fall season soon. The Great Pumpkin Farm will reopen for fall activities on September 18th, and Mayer Bros. Cider Mill reopened today as well.

The cooler weather is on the way for Buffalo and Western New York. When can we expect the first snowfall, though?

You might think sometime around Thanksgiving or even later, but in reality, the first average snowfall for Buffalo is October, according to the National Weather Service.

The first average flake falls on October 24th. The first measurable snow is November 8th (0.1 inches or more) and the first inch of snow is usually November 18th (one inch or more).

That also falls in line with Direct Weather's snow forecast for 2021, which predicts Western New York will see its first snowfall between November 1-15.

So, early November seems to be the sweet spot for the first measurable snow in Buffalo. That's well before the holiday season.

The earliest flake flew on September 20th back in 1956 (yikes) and the first measurable snow was October 6th back in 1991. The first inch of snow or more was October 10th in 1906.

Get our free mobile app

I don't have exact memories, but I always remembered years when threats of snow were forecasted just before Halloween. We don't (usually) have snow events in October, but you're probably saying to yourself, "what about the October Surprise Storm?"

The October Surprise Storm happened on the night of October 12th and the morning of the 13th, which barely missed the record for the earliest first inch or more of snowfall for Buffalo (October 10th).

Well, I think I speak for every Buffalonians that a snowstorm like the one in 2006 never happens again.