While you were watching the game last week, did you ask, "How did that just happen?" a couple of times?  It's because it shouldn't have happened.

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There are specialists in the NFL that literally sit around and crunch numbers to find out the probability of whether or not certain plays will be successful.  Then they pass that information on to the coaches to let them make the decisions.

Quarterbacks don't have that luxury.  They have to take every bit of information they can gather in fractions of seconds and make a decision right away.  It's incredible how fast this has to happen. After the play is over though, they can look at the data of what the probability of the play being successful was.

In all honesty, Josh Allen shouldn't have completed most of those huge pass plays that he was able to complete to his receivers last Sunday against the Steelers.  It was more likely that they would NOT have been completed.  But somehow he turned them into HUGE plays.

The Bills put out a video to show just how improbable the passes he threw were...


The touchdown pass to Shakir had a 37.7% chance of being caught.

The big touchdown to Davis for 98 yards only had a 25.6% chance of being caught.

The shorter one that was a much harder catch to make was even less.  That one held a 21.5% chance.

Let's give credit where credit is due though.  Those receivers made some pretty incredible catches too.  There are two people that need to make a catch happen, and if they're dropped, then we wouldn't even be having this conversation right now.

But you can't deny there is something special about Josh Allen.  Being able to make those decisions and then executing them is what makes our jaws drop and people say, "How did that just happen?"

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