With World Cup weeks away, who is the favorite to win Golden Boot?

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For the first time in its history, the World Cup will be contested in the fall.

Top leagues around the world will be put on pause, as 32 countries come together in Qatar starting on November 20 to contest the greatest tournament in the world.

While bettors will be focused on individual games and futures bets for teams, there will be a bigger ROI (return on investment) if you can pick the winner of the Golden Boot for top goal scorer.

Of course, that is pretty hard to do: most of the time, the winner does not come from the winning team. Of the last 14 tournaments, just three times (1978, Mario Kempes, 1982, Paolo Rossi, and 2002, Ronaldo Nazario) has the Golden Boot winner also hoisted the Jules Rimet Trophy.

Harry Kane is the reigning winner, and starts this one as the favorite, but no player has ever repeated.

Here are some of the favorites, as well as some dark horse candidates.

Top five odds by these Sporstbook Apps in New York

Harry Kane, England, +800: he is going to be the main target man for an England team that made the European final last summer. But if this team falters like it did in the recent Nations League, Kane could be out early: are you willing to bet on a player that could be home by the quarterfinals?

Kylian Mbappé, France, +900: Mbappe was just a teenager when he scored in the 2018 World Cup Final victory over Croatia. But look underneath, and you will see the soon-to-be Ballon d’Or winner right behind him in the odds. Who takes the penalties? That could determine who scores more for Les Bleus. Also, will France make a deep run?

Karim Benzema, France, +1400: he is going to win the Ballon d”Or. He just won the UEFA Champions League and La Liga. If France goes deep, he is going to be near the top of the goal scoring table. Once again, though, for the people in the back, who is taking France’s penalties?

Lionel Messi, Argentina, +1400: he is on here because he is Lionel Messi, and people are going to bet him. Oh, and Argentina is the second favorite to win.

Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal, +1400: he is on here because he is Cristiano Ronaldo, and people are going to bet him. Oh, and Portugal could be a live underdog.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

Neymar, Brazil, +1700: Brazil is the favorite to win, and my choice to beat France in the final. If you are around late in the tournament, you are going to get some goals. He might be a better choice for the Golden Ball as best player and/or to lead the tournament in assists.

Memphis Depay, Netherlands, +2200: this Netherlands team is DANGEROUS, and someone has to score their goals. It might be Memphis. He is definitely worth throwing a few bucks down to win the Golden Boot.

Vinicius Júnior, Brazil, +3000: once again, Brazil is the favorite, and Vinicius comes into the tournament off a red-hot season for Real Madrid. He is going to score goals, and might benefit from Neymar’s play. The only downside is that this Brazil team has so many attackers. He is worth a play.

Serge Gnabry, Germany, +4500: Germany could make a deep run, and someone has to score their goals.

MY PICKS:

Kylian Mbappé +900 and Vinicius Júnior +3000

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